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Game Matchups Preview #Bye: Josh Allen vs. Everyone
The date is March 9, 2018 and the Bills are coming off a season where they had finally ended a 17-year playoff drought. Speculation has been swirling for months whether the team will move on from their 3-year starting QB, Tyrod Taylor, until an Adam Schefter tweet changes everything. The Bills had traded Taylor to the Browns “And Buffalo[s] back in QB market” signaling what many Bills’ fans had expected, the Bills will draft a QB in 2018. Fast-forward to the NFL Draft where Bills’ fans were hoping that one of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson, or Josh Allen would fall to them at pick #12. The draft begins. With the 1st pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns select…Baker Mayfield. With the 3rd pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the New York Jets select…Sam Darnold. As pick 7 approached a 3rd QB has yet to be selected, then a trade is announced. Buffalo will trade the #12, #53, and #56 to the Buccaneers and move up to the #7 pick. With the 7th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select…
Josh Allen vs. Bills’ Fans
While some Bills’ fans were ecstatic with the Bills’ selection let’s not rewrite history and act like the entire fan base was behind the decision. Look at these Bills’ fans in Los Angeles, how bout these ones interviewed by WKBW, or even these ones in Tonawanda? And full transparency, while there is no video, I fully admit that when I heard the word “Allen” follow the word “Josh” an expletive or two (or three) may have been said. Frankly we had reasons to be skeptical, after all the Bills had just drafted a QB who completed only 56% of his passes at Wyoming and while he had eye popping arm strength was more comparable to Jamarcus Russel than Russel Wilson. But shortly after the draft Bills Mafia did what it does best, shook off a “loss” and moved forward. In doing so many of these skeptics would quickly feel what few had the foresight to see, that this 7th overall pick may just be the franchise altering one Bills Mafia had been dying for, for decades.
From the second he was drafted Allen began endearing himself to Bills’ fans with his first statement as a Buffalo Bills QB being, “Thank you to the Bills’ organization for making the leap and putting their faith in me. I’m gonna make them look like they’re the smartest people out there. I’m humbled. I’m blessed, to be a part of Bills Mafia.” The Bills had not only drafted a QB with massive upside but had gotten a football player who clearly wanted to be in Buffalo and was willing to do just about anything to prove Buffalo made the right decision in drafting him. This was visibly apparent for the first time in his career on September 23, 2018 against the Minnesota Vikings when two separate plays made Bills’ fans jaws drop more than watching Stevie Johnson shred apart Darrelle Revis. The first, on 2nd down from the Vikings 9-yard line Allen saw a lane to the left pylon and took it. From 5-yards out Allen took off, and in a Superman pose, hit the left pylon for the TD. A play few QBs can make and even fewer all willing to make, this only foreshadowed what was yet to come in arguably the most eye-popping play of 2018. On 3rd and 10 from the Bills side of the field Allen sees a bit of daylight over the middle of the field and breaks off a run with just Anthony Barr to beat. Meeting Barr 5 yards short of the 1st down Allen did the unthinkable, he jumped, right over the 6’5” LB for a 2nd quarter first down. That was it for a lot of Bills fans, Buffalo had a QB who would clearly do anything and everything to get them a win.
There are so many more highlights that increased Buffalo’s infatuation with Allen. Whether it be his impossible throw against Jacksonville, his Thanksgiving first down, or literally any game against the Dolphins I could go on and on about what Josh Allen has done on the field but it’s what he has done off the field that won the hearts of Bills Mafia. Using experiences from his childhood Allen spends more times than most interacting with the fans, the highlight being the time he took a young Dolphins’ fans’ jersey and replaced it with a signed Josh Allen one. Or how about the time Allen had a young fan autograph a drawing the fan was giving to Josh at a JA autograph event? All these moments culminated recently when Bills Mafia found out Allen was dealing with a difficult situation during the Bills’ 2020 matchup with the Seahawks. Postgame Bills’ fan learned that Allen’s grandmother had passed away and (un)surprisingly began donating $17 in her honor to Allen’s favorite charity, Oishei Children’s Hospital. Hundreds of dollars, Thousands, Tens of Thousands, Hundreds of Thousands, $483,000. And then the Bills’ QB capped it off by donating $17,000 to push the total to $500,000 (It would eventually exceed $650,000). Bills Mafia has found their QB in a kid that just 2.5 years earlier was excited to be a part of Buffalo now was saying, “My family is forever engraved here, myself included. I don’t ever want to leave. I want to play for as long as I can and give back to this community and Bills Mafia.”.
EDGE: Josh Allen 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏
Josh Allen vs. Analytics
We have all heard the line made famous by Jason Kirk, but here it is again; “If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself”. Let’s not sugarcoat it, the Analytics community despised the existence of Josh Allen as a prospect and before he was even drafted deemed it impossible for him to succeed. Kirk cites advanced metrics like S&P+, QBASE, Off-Target Rates, and “NFL Throw” accuracy as indicators of why his “ceiling” is Ryan Mallet and his closest comparison is Jake Locker. Kirk happened to have the catchy headline and has been a favorite of Josh Allen stans since, but this was just one of many articles written by the analytics community. Most of these analyses used made up stats as evidence to validate their pre-draft perceptions but none did so as viciously as one organization, Pro Football Focus (PFF).
In their pre-draft scouting report of Josh Allen PFF’s Steve Palazzolo & Sam Monson giddily trolled the Wyoming QB. The first statement that stood out, “The absolutely best case scenario is you might end up with a guy who is a little bit worse than Baker Mayfield”. Let’s unpack that statement. PFF is saying that assuming literally everything falls perfectly for Josh Allen at that point in time Allen would still be worse than any level of progression which Baker Mayfield achieves. This statement is so incredibly damning of a prospect that it makes complete sense why it would take years to back off such a statement. The second statement that stood out was, “You’re not going to fix the inaccuracy, it just doesn’t happen, you do not dramatically fix a quarterback’s basic ability to deliver a ball to a target”. Thus, is the trap of analytics, the inability to contextualize statistical observations with everything that leads up to them. It is a simple fact that Josh Allen completed just 56.2% of his passes at Wyoming but the context surrounding that number is up for interpretation. I often argue that while PFF supposedly analyzes every play in order to properly grade football players doing so without knowing what the actual play is, is the equivalent of saying the original version of Dante Alighieri’s Inferno was poorly written, while being unable to read Italian. It is worth noting that PFF has admitted their mistake, though doing so in a backhanded way by referring to it as an “anomaly”, and Sam Monson even filled out the Josh Allen apology form.
Analytics do have a use though and are best used as a piece of evidence in a larger discussion. PFF had failed to interpret how much Wyoming relied on their QB over other teams to a point where he was often required to win games by himself. In fact, in the only 2 games which Allen did not play between 2016 & 2017 Wyoming lost to Fresno State (10-4) & San Jose State (2-11) scoring only 24 combined points in those games. But PFF isn’t the only organization that fails to recognize the intangible parts of a player’s play as in all reality every part of the analytics community falls victim to this. Take ESPN and their made up QBR, which interestingly is built off a proprietary “formula” which ESPN refuses to educate the public on. In 2019 QBR, which measures a QBs “contributions to his team’s fortunes”, ranked Josh Allen 24th behind the likes of Jacoby Brissett (#21), Daniel Jones (#18), and Jameis Winston (#16). In normal passer rating, a formula available to everyone, these 3 QBs combined for a rating of 81.3 which was 4 less than Allen’s 85.3. These 3 QBs also combined for 757 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs where Allen had 510 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs, numbers QBR supposedly takes into consideration. Last, Brissett, Jones, and Winston had a combined record of 17-27 (.386) while Josh’s Bills went 10-5 (.667), Week 17 removed. Like QBR all these stats lack true context but in simply watching any of these four QBs play in 2019 are their truly people out there that would argue Allen is significantly worse than 30 interception Jameis Winston? Like PFF, ESPN’s QBR has corrected its mistakes and currently has Allen ranked the 5th best QB in 2020 (he has also played much better). Still for reasons described above many within, and outside, the Bills community look at QBR as nothing more than a statistic used by Madden to help formulate their player ratings (Where Allen is currently ranked 12th).
EDGE: Josh Allen 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏
Josh Allen vs. The NFL
How did NFL players feel when the Bills drafted Josh Allen? A good word is probably “Excited”. “I think Allen is trash. I don’t care what nobody say. He’s trash. And it’s gonna show too. That’s a stupid draft pick to me.” – Jalen Ramsey. “Can’t wait to catch passes from one of my fav QB’s” – Jamal Adams. Ramsey and Adams were clearly the most vocal players early on in Allen’s career but there were obviously more that silently drooled over the prospects of playing Allen. Allen’s rookie preseason as well as him “losing” the QB battle to Nathan Peterman were likely the nail in the coffin for many players perceptions of Allen, that is until Allen electrified the NFL.
Allen’s ability to make ridiculous play after ridiculous play has earned the respect of most all his peers. Whether it be the Barr leap, putting Kiko Alonso in the spin cycle, single handedly gaining a 1st down on Thanksgiving, or shocking opponents with the freak plays he is able to make Allen has been able to shut up the doubters and inspire fans out of his opponents. Even his most vocal doubter, Jalen Ramsey, Allen was able to tongue tie after beating his Jaguars in 2018. This has progressed further in 2020 where opponents interviewed prior to games are consistently lauding him. Players like Aaron Donald and Johnathan Abram heaped praise on Allen both before and after the game but the person which demonstrates best how much the NFL respects Allen is not one who straps a helmet on each week. There is nothing more telling about the respect of an opposing QB than how the defenses attempt to stop him which is why when Bill Belichick ran 5+ DBs on every single non-kneel snap of the Bills’ game you knew that the respect had reached a whole different level. The greatest coach of all time now looks at the JA led Buffalo passing attack as the most important element to stop wen playing the Bills.
2020 has evolved Josh Allen’s profile but even coming into this season his NFL peers were singing his praises. In the yearly NFL Top-100 NFL players voted Allen as the 87th best player in the NFL. This list is always a point of contention and I fully admit it is one I don’t subscribe to but that fact that Allen so quickly has been able to change his perception in the NFL is telling. But it starts and ends in Buffalo where Allen’s teammates rarely have a negative thing to say about the QB. After his 400+ yard performance in Week 2 the comments his teammates made in their postgame pressers said it all. “Jeeez, Dang Josh!”, “He’s the leader of our team and we’re riding behind him”, “He’s the General”. Ok, maybe you want to hear these things from a Buffalo Bills’ great, how bout Kyle Williams? Before the 2019 season Williams explained just who Allen is and what he means to this team when he said, “[Allen’s] a connector of men and people. He can bring people together. People tend to gravitate to him. That is an encouraging thing for the organization and for guys that are going to come to Buffalo and they’re going to come and play in this city and this organization, is to have that guy, the bell-cow, the quarterback, be that type of guy.”
EDGE: Josh Allen 👏 👏 👏 👏
Josh Allen vs. Sports Media
Like the analytics community Sports Media has been after Allen since before a football even touched his fingertips in Buffalo, and for the most part they have maintained this assault. Ultimately these talking heads spend more time building narratives based off box score and highlight watching than they do breaking down any form of tape. Honestly, it makes sense, they are entertainers after all with an emphasis on gaining views and drawing clicks more from the masses than pandering to people looking for detailed breakdowns of games. Still, to Bills Mafia and the NFL community as a whole, it becomes tiresome and incredibly frustrating to listen to these people talk about things as if they have a deeper understanding than the people who have watched every play, to a point where they demean the fans and players alike. Still this may be a losing battle and out of the 4 matchups I have broken down in this post this is the one that is nearly unwinnable. As the next 2 people will demonstrate, some people just refuse to admit they are wrong.
The first of these is Nick Wright who has been on my radar for a while as an avid listener of Mad Dog Radio, where his takes are often so outlandish you question whether he means anything he says. While Wright flip flops more than a pair of Reefs on the Jersey Shore, more often than not he spends his time slamming Allen with such little context it’s laughable. Beginning in 2018 Wright proved he had never watched Tyrod Taylor play football by saying that whoever started for Buffalo, followed by jokes about Josh Allen, represented the biggest downgrade in the entire NFL from 2017 to 2018. This narrative was one he held onto for quite some time but for the most part remained silent on Josh Allen until recent MVP talks required him to speak. In discussing his chances of MVP 3 games into the season, when by the way JA had 1122 yards & 12 TDS. Nick Wright said, “His chance of winning league MVP is approximately 0%”. In the same segment Wright goes on to say that he will never admit he is wrong about Josh Allen because to him he is right about the “Honorable Mention All Big-West” QB. Wright has been an utter mess covering Josh Allen but has been no-where near as bad as Colin Cowherd.
When Cowherd first heard that the Browns were considering taking Josh Allen with the #1 pick instead of Sam Darnold he likened it to the Charlotte Hornets trading Kobe Bryant for Vlade Divac in 1996. Fast forward to just before the 2020 season where Allen’s contemporaries voted him the 87th best player in the NFL (More on this later) and Cowherd had the audacity to say that Allen isn’t even a Top 200 player in the NFL. Remember, this is coming off a season in which Josh Allen had 29TDs, ranking 6th in the NFL. Even as recently as November 5 of 2020 Cowherd put Josh Allen in Tier 3 or 3 as a QB that the Bills will need to consider moving on from incoming seasons. No joke, he had Carson Wentz in Tier 2 over Allen. In a society where people are consistently unwilling to admit their mistakes Cowherd exemplifies this inability by refusing to back off a statement that was so blatantly false that he makes even Sam Monson look like an angel.
EDGE: Josh Allen 👏
Why He Won’t Succeed
It is possible that 2020 is a blip on the radar that will be Josh Allen’s career. Even through his domination of 2020 there are a few moments that make you scratch your head. Look no further than the Titans game where down by 11, with 3:26 left in the 3rd, Allen threw an awful interception which turned a close game into a blowout. This is just the boom or bust player he is which also shows up in his run game. Sure, he has plays where he bulldozes LBs, but he also clearly has a fumbling problem and takes way more big hits than any franchise would want of their QB.
The question is whether or not Allen can keep improving and reduce the mistakes. Maybe its just his incredible receiving corps in 2020 of Diggs, Brown, and Beasley which is arguably the best trio in the NFL. Could it be possible that these receivers are the keys to Allen’s success instead of the other way around? Think further, what if the Bills make the playoffs and lose their first game while Allen struggles. Then is their fear Allen can’t win the games that matter? These are very real possibilities and while only time will tell there is the possibility, they Josh Allen won’t succeed.
Why He Will Succeed
But he already has succeeded. Allen has succeeded in proving every doubter that said he could never be an average NFL QB wrong, to a point where him and Lamar Jackson have left Mayfield, Darnold, and Rosen in the dust for best QB from the 2018 draft. Now when we talk about succeed, we talk about the term “Franchise QB” and wonder whether Allen can be that guy for the next 5, 10, 15 years for Buffalo and lead them back to the glory of the 90s.
As for any knocks on him now, sure he has a few frustrating moments but by all measures he is playing like a Top-5 QB in the NFL. Honestly, name me 5 QBs better than Allen in 2020, I’ll wait (Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, …). Allen is doing what great QBs do, make everyone around him better. John Brown just had a career year and now both Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs are on pace for the best of theirs. Frankly, Allen is playing QB better than any player ever has in a Bills’ uniform. Yea I said it, as of this moment Allen is playing QB better than Jim Kelly, Joe Ferguson, or Doug Flutie but don’t get it twisted that doesn’t mean he is the greatest QB in Bills’ history. No, great QB is reserved for the one that gets you to the dance, best is for the one that wins it. Will Josh Allen succeed?
Prediction: 1 Super Bowl Win, Buffalo Bills QB through 2030+, Hall of “Very Good”
JA is a special cat and I've had more fun rooting for him in 2020 than I have any athlete in my lifetime. There is something about the player that every outsider tries to tear down and that a fan base continually props up. It’s something else when that player rewards you by improving to a point where he is in the conversation for the MVP of his league. I don’t know what the future holds, and it could be packed with regression and heartbreak, but at least for now I am comfortable, for the first time in my Bills’ fandom, repeating “We have a Franchise QB”.
2021 NFL Mock Draft with explanations for each pick (3 rounds) + Prospect rankings.
Decided to do an early mock and prospect analysis. I operate a 49ers blog and Slack server, and had done this with them, but I decided to share it here. fortheniners.com is my website if you want to check it out for more stuff, but it's mostly 49ers oriented. Give me some feedback, would love to hear it from you guys.
I created a custom order based on the rest of the season and i simulated the rest. Some picks might be switched in the 2nd round and 3rd due to the reordering of picks, but mostly it should be OK. I felt this order fit how I think the NFL will shake out by the end of season. I can't get the picks to number for some reason correctly.
- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
- Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
- Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
- Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
- Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
- D’Eriq King, QB, Miami
- Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
- Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M
- Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State
- Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
- Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
- Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State
- Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State
- Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Memphis
- Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
- Pat Friermuth, TE, Penn State
- Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami
- Hunter Long, TE, Iowa State
- Grant Calcaterra, TE, Oklahoma
- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
- Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
- Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
- Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
- Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
- Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
- Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
- Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson
- Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota
- Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State
- Creed Humphrey, OC, Oklahoma
- Trey Smith, OG, Tennessee
- Deonte Brown, OG, Alabama
- Josh Myers, OG, Ohio State
- Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State
- Jay Tufele, DT, USC
- Jaylen Twyman, DT, Pittsburgh
- Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
- Tyler Shelvin, DT, LSU
- Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
- Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
- Quincy Roche, DE, Miami
- Carlos Basham Jr, DE, Wake Forest
- Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
- Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
- Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
- Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan
- Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina
- Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama
- Caleb Farley, CB, Virgina
- Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
- Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
- Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
- Jevon Holland, FS, Oregon
- Paris Ford, SS, Pittsburgh
- Hamsah Nasirlideen, SS, Florida State
- Caden Sterns, FS, Texas
- Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse
3 ROUND MOCK
1st RoundNYJ - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
- Maybe the best QB prospect… ever. Lawrence brings what the Jets have lacked for a very long time. “It”. Lawrence is almost a flawless QB prospect, complete with elite physical tools, mental tools, experience in big games, and the football IQ to be one of the best QBs ever.
- Make no mistake. Justin Fields is not a consolation prize. The Ohio State product is one of the best QB prospects in recent memory as well, with exceptional arm talent, elite ability to make throws on the run, athleticism, leadership, and good decision making. Gifted with a strong arm and a very good deep ball, he will do well on a team that can build around him. He’s also part of the new generation of mobile QBs - Fields is expected to run in the 4.4s.
- Wilson is an interesting prospect. The eye-test shows a mega-talented QB with a knack for big plays, but reading in between the lines, his prospects become murky. Playing against a low level of competition, Wilson has never been truly under pressure from a pass rush during a game. Regardless, Wilson might be the most naturally gifted playmaker in this class - his ability to make throws on the run and extend plays is reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and more, and his arm talent fits that category. One year wonder, sure, but Wilson can be a superstar.
- Passing on the best tackle prospect in recent memory is probably a bad idea. Unfortunately, Dave Gettleman has a penchant for that. Rousseau is a very raw albeit extremely talented pass rusher from Miami. Despite being underdeveloped as a pass rusher, his physical gifts alone made him a top pass rusher last season, trailing only Chase Young as the best pass rusher in college. The Giants add another big man to a talented DL, along with Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence. Rousseau is oozing with potential, and with his length, burst, and strength, can become a force that will terrorize the NFC East. Rousseau is going to test very well at the combine as well.
- Joe Burrow is screaming for joy. Sewell is the best OT prospect, arguably since Joe Thomas, or Trent Williams - he has everything. This is almost a cant-miss pick for Cincinatti, and it gives them two young, bookend tackles in Sewell and 2019 1st round pick Jonah Williams to protect the Heisman award winning QB.
- Dallas is not as bad as this pick slot indicates, but regardless, they pick due to their injury concerns. Drafting on the defense has to be the priority here, and why not reunite Surtain Jr with his former Alabama teammate, and fellow DB in Trevon Diggs? It fills a need and is arguably the BPA at this spot.
- While they missed out on Sewell, longtime blindside protector for Justin Herbert, Leatherwood is a great prospect in his own right. A well rounded OL with experience in a tough conference like the SEC, Leatherwood is a stalwart that can start at guard or tackle, giving the Chargers a piece they can put anywhere on the line to protect Herbert, and he is NFL-ready on Day 1.
- Passing on Micah Parsons! How? Last time they picked a LB in the first round, it was Jarrad Davis, and they were burned, badly. Instead, they opt for the explosive WR out of Alabama, marking 3 straight picks from Tuscaloosa. Waddle is a game-breaker, stirring up comparisons to Tyreek Hill - and rightfully so. His speed is incredible, and his hands and route running are right up there as well, and he brings rare instincts and elusiveness. Waddle was the best WR in college before getting injured this season. Waddle adds the last piece to the Detroit offense, giving them a great group around Matthew Stafford who is entering the twilight of his career - with Waddle, Golladay, Jones Jr, Swift, and Hockenson, the Lions have the makings of a very good offense.
- Brian Flores would sprint to the podium to pick up Parsons if this was the scenario. The former LB coach grabs one of the most gifted LB prospects in a long time, and he fits the Dolphins at one of their biggest positions of need, with Raekwon McMillan gone. Parsons forms a fearsome LB duo next to Jerome Baker, and brings rare instincts, speed, and physicality to Miami.
- Denver was hoping that Parsons would fall one more pick, but alas, they have to settle. Cosmi is one of the most physically talented OTs in the draft, and although he is raw, he’s got plenty of ability and potential. John Elway grabs his hopeful franchise LT to protect Drew Lock.
- One of the fastest risers in the draft, Paye is physically dominant as an EDGE rusher and has the production to back it up. Atlanta could have taken a QB here, but considering that they have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley both in their primes at the moment, they decide to stick with Matt Ryan - for the short term, instead of spending a massive asset on a rookie QB and waiting on him. Paye can become one of the best DL in the league, and replaces Takkarist McKinley.
- Another team that could have taken a QB - Minnesota passes on the hometown kid, Lance, in favor for an interior lineman. While QB would be ideal here, Kirk Cousins’ contract is a behemoth, and it does not afford the Vikings a real opportunity to get off that contract - Minnesota would be better off shoring up the rest of their team, and looking for a new QB in the future, while sticking with Cousins short-term.
- The Garoppolo era is over - and the new era of Trey Lance begins in San Francisco. Lance is the only QB of the “big four” who exclusively works in a pro-style offense, and under center. His big arm, mobility, and IQ on the football field will be a welcome sight for 49ers fans who have seen none of those under the last couple years with Garoppolo at the helm. Lance, although in a weak conference, has showcased both elite ability as a pocket passer and a runner, with exceptional touch on deep balls. He can stand in the pocket, deliver while taking a hit, and Kyle Shanahan will like all of that. Great decision maker, and he limits turnovers.
- Bill Belichick misses out on the last remaining big QB. He instead opts for the premier offensive weapon in the class, Kyle Pitts. Pitts is in the running for the Heisman. As a TE. Yeah. Belichick adds Pitts to a weakened Patriots offense in desperate need for a big weapon like Pitts, and he steps into the 6 foot 6 inch, 265 pound gap left by Rob Gronkowski in Foxborough.
- With Teddy playing very well, Carolina likely opts to reinforce their defense, after doing so already last season. Their offense is all but set, with stars like McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel already in the mix - but the biggest problem is the defense. While they could go LB to replace Kuechly, why not provide one more big time player in the secondary. With Donte Jackson, Caleb Farley, Jeremy Chinn, and more, Carolina has the makings of a great defense.
- They will go DL and the BPA in that case is FSU’s Marvin Wilson. The big man has been one of the best interior DL in college for a very long time and will continue to do so in Vegas, and provides a physical presence next to Maurice Hurst, Clelin Ferrell, and Maxx Crosby. This is a reach, but the Raiders bet that Wilson can recapture his previous level of play in an NFL program.
- Moses, physically, is one of the most talented LB prospects in the draft. A thumper at LB, Moses has seen everything coming from the long list of star Alabama LBs in recent years - but there are question marks. Before his ACL injury, Moses was supposed to go top 10, but after, his play level, and instincts have declined and he looks a step slow. Still, Cleveland opts to grab Moses and place him next to Mack Wilson, giving the Cleveland defense the leader and MIKE LB they need and that they had lost in Joe Schobert.
- Friermuth has drawn Gronk comparisons as a big, bulky target over the middle with blocking capability and red-zone dominance. While he may never reach that level, this is a no-brainer at 18 - Jacksonville gets Justin Fields his safety blanket for the next 5 years or more, and fills one of their biggest needs on the offensive end of the ball.
- Philly fans are likely screaming in joy. Arguably the best WR in the draft drops all the way to 19, and right into the lap of Doug Peterson. Carson Wentz finally gets his #1 WR, and it’s a good one. Next to Jalen Reagor, Chase forms a lethal duo and both complement each other perfectly. He has everything a WR needs, and although he is not exceptionally fast, his hands, route running, ball skills, and physicality more than make up for it. He drops partly due to his speed not being amazing and recency bias favoring Jaylen Waddle.
- Tufele is a gifted defensive tackle - with good athleticism, technique, and all-around ability, and young as well, he is nowhere near his ceiling both as a pass rusher and run defender. He can be a 3 down player and can start day one, and for a contender like Tennessee, that makes perfect sense. They shore up the DL again, with three pieces set in stone - Harold Landry, Jeffery Simmons, and now, Tufele.
- With Preston Williams, DeVante Parker, and Jakeem Grant, the Dolphins have a good WR corps. But they need that final piece, the #1 - and Smith is exactly that. Tua gets his favorite target back, as Smith follows in the footsteps of the Alabama route-runners before him in Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, and Amari Cooper. He is thin, but strong at the same time, showcasing good speed, elite route running, elusiveness, and hands, giving Tua the target he needs.
- The SAVIOR! The Trubisky saga is over, and Nick Foles time is short lived in Chicago as well. Chicago opts for Mac Jones, the signal caller from Alabama. Jones is an experienced QB - but the sample size of him playing well is small. Armed with an elite deep ball, a good arm, and functional mobility, Jones works in a pro-style system and is one of the few QBs that could start Day 1 in the NFL. With great decision making and ability to read the field, while playing tough defenses in the SEC - Jones opens up the entire playbook for Chicago because he can throw to any part of the field. They could take Kyle Trask, but instead opt for the higher ceiling in Mac Jones.
- A WR would also be a fit here next to Michael Thomas, but with Mac Jones gone, the Saints opt to add another LB next to the aging DeMario Davis and questionable Kwon Alexander. J.O.K. is a talented LB who can lineup at anywhere from MIKE, to S, to OLB, and do it at a high level. Great in coverage, and can play against TEs and occasionally WRs in the slot. He’s a defensive weapon for Sean Payton.
- Tre White gets a partner in crime. Wade falls all the way to 24, where Sean McDermott picks up the best fit at corner for his scheme. Wade is exceptional both in press and in zone, and is an explosive and fast athlete with some swagger when tackling. He can work both outside or in the slot, and while he has some issues against taller and bigger WRs, it’s nothing that cannot be ironed out. The Bills form an elite, top 3 defense with Wade in the fold.
- A QB could make sense here, but Trask once again falls as Indianpolis decides to stick with one of the three in Rivers, Brissett, or the Uber-talented rookie in Jacob Eason. Instead, they grab the best safety in the class in Jevon Holland. Holland is a do-it-all safety with great coverage ability, and a lot of range - and he gives the Colts a player they can plug and play at either FS or SS. Malik Hooker simply has not worked out for the Colts due to health reasons, so the Colts grab a long term starter at S.
- Kyler Murray gets his old friend from Oklahoma. Humphrey is a plug-and-play center or guard prospect in the NFL and gives Murray some much needed familiarity - and at a big position of need. Arizona’s biggest focus should be protecting Murray, and Humphrey is a strong, technical stalwart in the interior, which is key against the NFC West’s talent like Aaron Donald, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, and more.
- Aaron Rodgers will riot if this pick is not another weapon. Despite the defensive short comings for the Packers, they have to take WR here - it’s holding back their offense. They opt for Rondale Moore, the explosive WR from Purdue. Moore is a game-changer with the ball in his hands, a YAC machine who will destroy you in the open field. And that is a perfect compliment to Davante Adams, as Moore can lineup anywhere, from RB, to the SLOT, to outside WR. Aaron Rodgers has clearly missed Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb - but Moore brings what Cobb also brought to the table.
- The speed demon in Marquise Brown is already there - but the Ravens need a true #1. Bateman brings a physical, big presence at WR, something Lamar has not had since college, and something he really needs. Bateman’s sure hands, body control, contested catch ability, and explosiveness is exactly what the Ravens need - as the final piece in a juggernaut of an offense being created. With Mark Andrews, JK Dobbins, Marquise Brown, Jackson, and now Bateman in the fold, Jackson’s full ability as a passer can be unleashed and the Ravens offense with that.
- When in doubt, take the Bama player. In all seriousness, there are plenty of options the Buccaneers can go with here - but clearly, reinforcing the DL is the most popular way of doing so. Barmore next to Vita Vea gives the Buccaneers a great duo, with Barmore a perfect candidate to play the 3-tech. He’s raw but plenty of growing room.
- Trask finally comes off the board, and to arguably the perfect team. Trask is not ready to start in the NFL day one - but he can be that guy in the future. Although he does not possess an amazing arm, he has all the intangibles, accuracy, and decision making to become the QBOTF in Pittsburgh. Trask’s biggest issue is his footwork - if he can fix that, everything else will fall into place. He possesses the physical attributes to be a star, tall, built strong, and he is fearless in the pocket. The throwing motion is good, but the overall mechanics in combination with the footwork need improvement. Fortunately, he will have time to do so under Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.
- Basically any pick is a luxury pick for Kansas City, but they opt for Basham here. Basham is a sure-thing, he won’t be a superstar, but he will be a very good defensive end. He is strong, big, and possesses both good burst and good technique - and forms a great duo across from Frank Clark.
- While they could take Etienne here, instead of the next pick right after, they take Carman first - for the 5th round option. RBs are usually easy to keep, but that 5th year option if Carman pans out will be massive. The Jets grab Trevor Lawrence two familiar faces back to back, in order to appease their new franchise QB, who may not have been enthusiastic to be drafted by NY.
2nd round:NYJ - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
- Jets grab another familiar face, this time in the best RB in the draft. Lawrence feeling at home. Etienne has incredible speed, acceleration, and is a complete RB, being able to play on 3rd down. The Jets get a dynamic weapon, a stark contrast to the slow and steady Le’Veon Bell.
- If Justin Fields is going to succeed, the Jaguars need to step it up everywhere. They’ve addressed TE, now they address the OL, with Smith. Rock-solid lineman with versatility, Smith is one of the best pass protectors in the draft.
- First step in Washington with new management in the fold is building a new culture. Support players - and Surratt is squeaky clean off the field with academic awards and more. But really, this is about football - Surratt is a very good possession WR and fits next to McLaurin well, giving Zach Wilson a big target with soft hands and good speed.
- Passing on Sewell hurts - but Mayfield makes up for it. A very high potential player at OT, Mayfield can play at RT or LT, depending on where the Giants shift the struggling Andrew Thomas. Saquon Barkley breathes a sigh of relief.
- Familiar target? Check. AJ Green is likely out of Cincinnati after this season, and Marshall can perfectly fit in as a height-weight-speed freak with production. Marshall can be the #1 WR in Cincy.
- Strengthening this defense is key - and the next step is at safety. Sterns fits the bill as a playmaking coverage safety who can play in man or zone, helping this Cowboys pass defense take the next step.
- Two tackles in a row? With a QB like Herbert, you need it. With Trai Turner, Leatherwood, Little, and Lamp on the OL, Herbert will have good protection and for a long time with two new bookend tackles. Little is a great fit at RT, with Leatherwood slotting on the left. Good technique, great size, and great length.
- Taking the Ann Arbor product, McGrone has sky-high potential as a three down LB with sideline to sideline speed. Detroit gets the chosen one at their biggest need.
- Besides the Miami connection, this is a no-brainer. Roche drops to the 2nd, where Brian Flores picks him up to reinforce a pass rush in need of a speedy, bendy edge rusher like Roche. Big time pick up, as Miami is nailing the draft.
- Von Miller and Jurrell Casey should return next season, giving the Broncos a fearsome trio combined with Bradley Chubb. Twyman is the final piece and gives them a longterm solution. An explosive, undersized DL, Twyman is already an elite pass rusher on the interior with room to grow.
- Narrowly missing on Twyman, they settle for Shelvin, the behemoth DT from LSU - a great fit next to Grady Jarrett, Dante Fowler, and now Kwity Paye. Shelvin can swallow up double teams.
- Fields is in the fold, but that does not mean Jacksonville ignores the defense. They get a good safety in Paris Ford, a guy who is always around the ball. With Josh Allen, Chaisson, Myles Jack, CJ Henderson, and now Ford, they have high potential guys on every level of the ball.
- Dee Ford is likely gone… so the 49ers need a speed rusher, an athletic one for DL coach Kris Kocurek to mold. While very raw, Oweh is a physical freak with speed, a quick first step, strength, and bend. He is not a finished product, and will be limited to pass rush duties in his first years, but once he develops, watch out.
- Bill Belichick runs to the podium for this pick. Home run for NE, as they grab the perfect player they need at LB and the DL - someone who can fill the position that Jamie Collins left years ago. Ossai is very raw but Bill Belichick will savor getting a LB that he can mold in whatever way he wants for his defense. This is a perfect fit.
- A smart, fast and instinctive LB, Cox will not replace Luke Kuechly, but he can help. Next to Shaq Thompson, the Panthers have filled a lot of their holes already - and it’s still the 2nd round.
- Cisco gives the Raiders a nice, young, and talented safety duo in their secondary with Abram as well. Raiders continue to strengthen the defense. Cisco is coming off a torn ACL but is talented and was a 1st round prospect, arguably, until his injury.
- Odell Beckham Jr is likely done - and either way, Baker Mayfield needs a new target, preferable one that can play in the slot or outside. St. Brown has great hands, great route running, and good speed. Cleveland has a big need at EDGE, but they opt to get their young QB one more target in hopes of a breakout season.
- They could take a LB here, but Myers dropping this low is a no-brainer. The Rams add another athletic and polished OL. Myers is a good fit for the zone scheme that Sean McVay runs, and fill one of their most pressing needs. Jared Goff is not Jared Goff under pressure - this is the way to keep this offense chugging… investing in the OL, especially in the brutal NFC West.
- Perfect fit. Nasirlideen can play at safety or LB, and is physically incredible. Knack for forcing turnovers and he is a sure tackler, and although he has some coverage issues, he is still good vs. TEs and slot WRs at times. Philly gets a tone-setter at LB, their biggest need, or at S, arguably the 2nd biggest need.
- The battle is won in the trenches. The Titans don’t have many needs, but strengthening the OL is always a good idea.
- Miami is nailing the draft. Faalele is the most physically impressive prospect in this class, with great athleticism despite being 6 foot 9 inches and nearly 400 pounds. He’s a freak, and a perfect candidate to play at RT and protect Tua Tagovailoa’s blind side. Tua is very happy right now!
- Grabbing another athletic, and technically sound OL - Vera-Tucker fits Chicago’s needs well, especially with long-time starter Kyle Long retired.
- New Orleans needs a true #2 WR next to Michael Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders is the short-term for that. Toney is the long-term solution. Explosive YAC threat, Toney is a perfect fit in the West Coast offense that Sean Payton runs, and is seemingly uncatchable in the open field - and he comes with versatility, as a former QB; we know Sean Payton likes that.
- The Bills need more from their DL to take their defense to the next level. Jerry Hughes is already 32, and by taking Jones, an explosive pass rusher with good technique and great size. Across from AJ Epenesa, Buffalo has two good EDGE rushers to anchor a DL and give Ed Oliver some help.
- He does not have very much burst or an elite first step, but Hutchinson’s pursuit ability, motor, and strength are up there with the best. He’s inexperienced but he has a good assortment of pass rush moves, and offers versatility too - he is 280 pounds. IND gets a guy that they can play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DE, the three tech, or even 3-4 OLB if needed.
- Crazy talented athlete, Campbell is raw but he has a ton of potential. Great hips, great recovery speed, and he can run with anyone. Good size, he’s a player that can play in most if not all schemes, with the ability to play bump and run, press, zone, or man.
- Adding two explosive weapons to an offense that already had Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams is stupid. That’s exactly what happens here - Green Bay grabs their TE of the future, in Jordan. Jordan is a gifted athlete with a lot of speed and explosiveness, built in the molds of the new wave of TEs like George Kittle, Noah Fant, and more. Green Bay now has weapons everywhere and are poised for the short-term with Rodgers, and the long term with Love.
- They took Patrick Queen last year, but they still need one more guy on that defense. While they have a pressing need at safety, Surratt’s potential is too much to pass up. Super talented with instincts, Surratt is a former QB and inexperienced, yet he has shown massive ability. High character and the leader the Ravens need on defense.
- Always pick the OL when unsure. Lindstrom is polished and although he does not possess a high ceiling, he should be a good starter in the NFL for a long time. Protect Brady.
- Joe Haden is aging and Pittsburgh needs a boost of youth in the secondary to match Minkah Fitzpatrick. Horn has been one of the breakout stars this college season, and it’s a wonder he even dropped this far.
- LDT’s status is unclear beyond this season, and besides, the Chiefs have needed a boost in the OL for a while. This is a trend - contending teams without weaknesses will almost always opt to strengthen the trenches.
- Tryon is far from a finished product but would represent the most hope Seattle has had at pass rush in a very long time. He is big, lengthy, has good burst, and good hand placement, and has a very high ceiling. The UW product stays in Seattle.
3rd round:NYJ - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
- If the CB class was not so stacked this year, Stokes would have had a shot to go in the 1st. Either way, the Jets grab a talented, twitchy corner from Georgia with a knack for forcing turnovers. Stokes can be a #1 CB if developed correctly. Great in press coverage especially.
- Justin Fields’ favorite target joins him in Jacksonville. He is really polished in everything a WR needs - great route runner, great hands, and he can contort his body to make some tough catches. He is limited physically, that frame is not going to be able to take an NFL season. He is going to have to bulk up, but Fields gets a classic #2 WR who can play in the slot or outside.
- Scheme-versatile, athletic, physical. He checks most boxes - he needs work on his technique, specifically when he comes out of his stance, but moving him to guard would eliminate that need. He can anchor himself well too.
- Prototypical X WR that fits well next to Darius Slayton. Williams cannot separate much, but with his hands and body control, is a great possession WR who will consistently make contested catches. Red-zone threat with upside.
- Two-down run defender with upside. He’s got a lot of athleticism and improving technique, but outside of the run-game, he can’t do much right now. Good fit, both for Cincinnati’s needs and also scheme.
- Weird prospect. He switched from WR to CB in college, so he is still clearly learning the nuances of being a corner, but you can see what he can be vs. what he is now. Kendrick is not going to wow anyone for a while, but if Dallas can develop him right, he can be very good. Very much a long-term pickup.
- He is really good with the play in front of him, classic slot corner. Good acceleration and he is a good tackler. He’s scheme-versatile, and with good hips, he can play off-man and press if needed. Good and easy replacement for Desmond King in the slot for the Chargers, especially with the aging Chris Harris. Samuel can get bullied by bigger WRs so DCs need to be careful with matchups, at least til he can get stronger.
- Quandre Diggs being traded last season left a gaping hole in their secondary. Moehrig is a very good centerfield type safety with ball hawking ability and really good instincts. He’s got issues tackling, but most deep safeties have the same issues. Big time potential.
- Protecting DeShaun Watson needs to be the goal - Jackson is a good fit for Houston. Strong with good athleticism, Jackson has played at tackle for a long time at Iowa, but his flexibility and length limit him. He will move to guard - but that’s exactly what Houston needs.
- A tough inside LB with good closing speed and size, Rice is a good candidate as a WILL LB with coverage skills as well. He is a step late on some plays while diagnosing - which along with his size prevents him from playing at midde linebacker.
- Surprise! Well, not really. I expect Atlanta to hire a modern OC, and that means a modern QB is needed. King fits the bill as a dual-threat QB with a great arm. I really like his feel for the game, his arm talent, his improving accuracy, and anticipation, and the natural ability to extend plays and make throws on the run or scramble is great too. King may be undersized, but he makes up for it with his elusiveness and build. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson succeeded, King can as well. Why not pick Trey Lance in the 1st? No matter what, the QB they pick will be a project. It would be better to invest in other positions early, and still grab the QB of the future late. He’s not Quinton Flowers, or JT Barrett - he’s much more. Great anticipation, strong arm, and he makes plays.
- Really good bend and speed off the EDGE. He is another raw EDGE rusher, which is plentiful in this draft - but Minnesota needs a guy they can develop, just as they did with Danielle Hunter.
- Weapons, weapons, weapons. Wilson needs all he can get, and now he has two talented WRs in Surratt and McLaurin, and Calcaterra joins that group. There are massive injury concerns with Calcaterra - he retired due to concussions and then returned earlier this season - but when he was healthy, he was considered a top TE in College Football. This is very much a bet for Washington, but it could pay off massive dividends.
CAR - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
- NFL-ready frame and he’s got really good length. He can hold his own against most pass rushers, speed or power. Athleticism is average though - he is better off in a power-scheme more than anything else.
- Nasty and strong, especially in the run game. Jon Gruden will love this guy, but he needs to get more disciplined especially with his footwork and stance - when he maintains his leverage, he is elite. Needs to get more polished but the potential is there.
- Size is an issue with LeCounte, but his ball skills and instincts are great, as is his football IQ. He will be able to start Day One in the NFL - and with Grant Delpit at SS, LeCounte is a nice pairing at FS. Browns strengthen the defense again.
- Rams biggest need is probably LB - but they wait til the 3rd to grab one. Bolton is a monster in the run-game, super hard hitter and he’s got good instincts to guess the gap and go. He’s limited in the passing game, but once again - he’s got plenty of time and potential to iron that out. Better in zone, as most LBs are.
- Really good slot corner. Super twitchy with really quick feet - he can mirror anyone in the slot. The problem is with his size - but in general, this guy can play. He needs work on his tackling and hand fighting at the line but as a man-coverage type, Philly can’t get much better at this point in the draft.
- He’s just good at everything. Not a game-changing playmaker at TE, but he gets the job done and can do anything asked of a TE. Tennessee will love his blocking and good athleticism.
- As if Miami wasn’t already nailing this draft, this puts the cherry on top. Harris in the 3rd is incredible value - he’s physical, fast, elusive, and does everything a RB is supposed to do. Every-down RB. TD machine and he will always fall forward - he’s the alpha they need at RB, and a good compliment to Myles Gaskin. Another familiar face for Tua Tagovailoa.
- The Bears need that extra #2 WR, Schwartz brings exactly that. Anthony Miller is better off in the slot, and while Allen Robinson is awesome, both Miller and Robinson cannot take the top off a defense like Schwartz can. He’s dangerous with the ball in his hands and is still improving. His frame is very flimsy however, and he’s got some issues blocking - but you can see his role in Matt Nagy’s offense.
- They need a space eater next to Myles Garrett. Onwuzurike brings that and more to the table.
- Gabriel Davis and Stefan Diggs are great, but Buffalo lacks a threat at slot WR - John Brown and Cole Beasley are again. Newsome is explosive, lightning quick, and has very good route running and elusiveness in the open field.
- Another DE? Justin Houston is aging, and if Indianapolis wants to keep building their defense, this is necessary to give DeForest Buckner some help. Toney is not ready to be an every-down player, but as most Penn State products are - he is gifted as an athlete. He’s got plenty of potential as a pass rusher.
- There are questions about his run defense and is not disciplined as a DT should be. He more than makes up for it with his disruptiveness as a pass rusher. Rare get-off for a DT, and his size lends hm and advantage because he is so powerful and fast with good leverage.
- Hard hitter with ball production tends to work out in the NFL. He’s a fine athlete and is a quick diagnosed of plays, and while his run defense is great, his coverage skills are better. Not often does a LB log multiple interceptions in one season, but Sanborn did just that. Do-it-all LB for the Packers, although he has some limitations.
- Versatile weapon with a ton of speed and elusiveness. The production matches the skillset, and he brings the presence the Vikings need next to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen for the next couple of years.
- He isn’t much of a coverage safety, but Harvell-Peel is a fantastic run defender and tackler at safety. He’s not a liability, but he is not someone you want covering the back-end on third down either way. Harvell-Peel gives Bruce Arians a piece that he can shift anywhere, from LB to SS to slot CB if necessary, and he can get physical in the trenches and hold his own.
- Ruckert is a smooth athlete at TE and a very good blocker too. Despite not having much opportunity at OSU, Ruckert made the most of it - he’s got great hands as well. Pittsburgh grabs the future safety blanket for Kyle Trask… and forms a duo with Eric Ebron.
- Reinforcing this defense again. Adebo is a good zone and press corner. He’s got limitations, but he’s still developing and could be very good in the future.
- If you ain’t noticed a trend by now, I don’t know what to say. But really, the Jets know that they aren’t exactly enticing for Lawrence. Making it feel like home for him is very important, both for his development and also for the future. They’ve alienated their defensive savant in Jamal Adams, they can’t have this happen again. Ross is mega-talented, but his neck injury last season caused him to drop from a 1st round prospect to a late 3rd prospect. Regardless, if the Jets can get Denzel Mims, Justyn Ross, Travis Etienne, plus two bookend tackles in Mekhi Becton and Jackson Carman - Trevor Lawrence has something he can work with. Ross is a prototypical #1 WR, with height-weight-speed measurements perfect and the production to back it up.