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PH Invest 102 Part 4 - Example From Research to Purchase
So far I've made one new purchase - SPC Power Corp. (SPC). Please don't take this as a buy recommendation. There are some legitimate concerns about this stock. Also, I might be wrong and/or just an idiot. So don't buy it without doing your own research :). I just want to write about it. It's as if it was invented as a perfect example for this method.
More about valuation
I mentioned valuation methods based on discounted earnings in an earlier thread. I made such a poor job at explaining it, so I'm giving it another shot.
I think I first read about a method called the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) from The Warren Buffett Way.
As you can see from the DDM link above, you get a fair value per share with a simple formula. And if you assume a growth rate of zero, it's even simpler. It's just the dividend per share divided by the discount rate. The problem is, a lot of companies don't even give out dividends or give them out irregularly.
The book describes another method using what's called "owner earnings". It's the net income + noncash expenses - capital expenditures and +/- working capital changes (I don't even incorporate working capital changes in the tool, either I couldn't figure out how or I couldn't get it programmatically). Then the formula to get a valuation is similar to the DDM formula. Divide the owner earnings with the discount rate minus the growth rate, and you get a fair value for the company.
Eventually, I came across the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCF). The concept is the same. It just seems to be a more precise method to get a fair value for a company. I still can't understand it. I get to the part for calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and my brain just gives up. If there's anyone here who understands it, please create a thread and explain how to do it that's accessible to lay people. And, if at all possible, describe a way to do it automatically so I can incorporate it in the tool. I can only do valuation For Dummies.
I realized these are just variations of the same thing. Over the lifetime of a company, all the remaining earnings/cash flows will eventually be given out as dividends to shareholders, and all noncash expenses like depreciation will eventually equal capital expenditures. So I also started discounting just the net income. Also, the DCF uses the "free cash flow", which is the cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures. The tool collects those values so I used it as well. But another problem is the net income, cash flow from operations, capital expenditures, etc. can vary wildly from year to year. So I also average these values from the past 5 years.
For the discount rate, ideally it should be the WACC of the company. I've also read it can be a "risk-free rate" for long-term investment. That is, where can you put your money long-term and be confident that you'll get it back with interest? The book used 30-year US Treasury Bonds and came up with a rate below 10%. I thought, maybe I should be using Philippine Bond rates and got a higher rate. I also read that around 10% is appropriate for public companies. I currently use 11.5% to be on the conservative side.
You may have noticed I've been making a lot of compromises with valuation - to the point of being unreliable. I keep asking myself that as well. But if we can't be precise, we can be conservative. And if a stock is showing up as undervalued using very conservative valuations, there's a good chance that it is undervalued - and eventually it'll move closer to its fair value.
It's better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong.
Step 1: Finding Candidate "Value" Stocks
I start by looking at the companies with the highest returns on assets. These are all the companies showing a 10% or higher return on assets. That's out of 264 companies.
The right half of the table has the columns: Book to Price, (Discounted) Earnings to Price, (5-Year) Average Earnings to Price, Free Cash Flow to Price, Average Free Cash Flow Price, Intrinsic Value (Discounted Owner Earnings) to Price and Average Intrinsic Value to Price.
They're all in a ratio "to price" or the market capitalization. So if a valuation for the company is higher than the market price, the value will be greater than 1, and that's what we want. So it appears in green in the table.
I mentioned the Book Value/Equity/Net Worth before and why it's a natural value to assign to a company. If the company decides to shut down today, sell all of its assets and pay off all of its debts and obligations, it's what will be left for investors. Usually, companies trading at way below their book values are going through a bad phase or have had something catastrophic happen. Here's a table sorted from highest to lowest Book to Price:
It may be worth looking at how a company got that way. If a company can turn things around, it may be a great bargain.
Also, the last column is the "Risk-Free Test". I think I got that from The Intelligent Investor. It takes the current assets (readily available cash or other assets, or to be received soon) and subtracts the total liabilities. And if that value is still higher than the market capitalization, then the stock is virtually risk-free. The company can cover all investors no matter what. Only a few companies pass this test. I don't rely on this value much. I prefer strong earnings. Still interesting to look at, though.
Back to the first screenshot sorted by returns on assets, I skipped the first 3 entries. SGP seems to be a failed backdoor listing. FMETF is an exchange traded fund. I haven't really looked into it. PHC has been suspended since 2007 but those earnings were real, for 2016 at least. They're trying to lift the suspension on the stock so it'd be interesting to see what happens then.
There are very few green values, but 2 companies stand out - GMA Network and SPC Power. I may look into GMA7 soon, but SPC immediately caught my attention. It's trading below book, very high earnings to price ratio and even the average earnings to price is well above 1 for a company that has an 18+% return on assets. The average earnings is even more telling because it means the earnings didn't just jump recently, like for GMA7. It's been consistently high for SPC the past 5 years. This seems too good to be true. Normally, investors fall over themselves for a stock like this and it ends up fairly valued to overvalued. Just look at Shakey's Pizza immediately below SPC. It's a company with 2.6 billion in assets and a market capitalization of 21 billion. SPC has 10.6 billion in total assets and trading at 6.5 billion. The discrepancy is insane.
Note, though, that these values are projections for 2016. We only have the financials for the first 9 months of 2016 for most companies. The income and cash flow values are annualized by multiplying them by 4/3. SPC's 9-month income for 2016 was already almost equal the entire 2015 income and that would still be around a 13% return on assets.
Step 2: Digging Deeper
So first, I checked if the values were even real. Here's my stock page for SPC:
Those values were mostly gathered from The Wall Street Journal. I opened the annual and quarterly reports to compare the values. There are some discrepancies in the cash flow section in the 2015 annual report. I don't really know why. It's either the data from the WSJ are wrong or they're following a different accounting method. But the balance sheet and income statement sections are accurate. The important part is that those earnings are actually real.
Here's a table of all the companies in the same subsector (Electricity, Energy, Power & Water):
SPC has the highest return on assets yet the lowest price to earnings ratio. Shell Philippines is a far second with a 10% return on assets. But a more appropriate company to compare it to would be Vivant Corp. (VVT). They're almost the same size in terms of assets and they're both into power generation and distribution. They both also have operations in Cebu. Yet VVT is trading at a relatively much higher price.
The low price didn't make sense. So I turned to Google. Almost immediately, I found out about the company's failed acquisition of the Naga Power Plant Complex (NPPC). It looked bad. The company didn't just fail. It actually succeeded at first by using an agreement with the government (PSALM) that may or may not be fair, or even corrupt. The company got sued and the Supreme Court voided the deal. The stink of it all might have made the company unfavorable to investors. Also, their revenue and income will probably take a big hit once they turn over the NPPC, I thought. As of last December, SPC was still appealing the decision and was still operating the NPPC. This could explain the low price if investors expected its income to drop. I held off on buying, but I kept trying to piece together what happened.
The more I learned about the company, the more baffled I got - again. I started to think losing the NPPC bid wouldn't affect the revenues much after all. They had plans to build an even bigger power plant inside the NPPC. Those plans got delayed/scrapped, but they could just build somewhere else. Also, they already paid more than 1.1 billion to PSALM for the NPPC and lease of the surrounding land. PSLAM has yet to return it.
Another concern was they're still planning on building coal-fied power plants under the current DENR. They might have problems getting those approved. And coal seems to be on its way out as an energy source.
And last, the stock barely trades. On a typical day, it just trades in the hundreds of thousands. Some days no trades are made at all. If you invest in this stock, you may have trouble selling in the future. It may be a catch-22.
So the pros for the stock are:
- High earnings
- High growth, practically doubled its assets and equity in just 5 years
- Seems to be grossly undervalued, exactly the type of stock I'm looking for
- Failed major deal
- Coal has a stigma
- Stock is "illiquid"
A few days later, I was reading the 2015 annual report and saw this:
Some companies own other companies called subsidiaries. The parent company releases a consolidated financial report with data for the parent company and subsidiaries combined, and sometimes one just for the parent company. This was the answer I was looking for. The only thing the parent company has been doing is operate the NPPC. The revenues were decreasing, as if they're scaling back, and by 2015, they even lost money operating it. I concluded that losing the NPPC won't have that much of an impact. And after some reading, I got convinced that coal is on its way out, but not for a few decades. The use of coal will still rise a bit before declining.
So I pulled the trigger and invested in the stock. It's now 10% of my portfolio. I'm just waiting for the annual report to decide if I should buy more. I decided to buy immediately instead of waiting for the annual report to come out first because I can't predict the future. I can only trust this method.
If I could find 4 or 5 other stocks like this, that'd be my ideal portfolio.